GHBA Forecast Luncheon January 2020
Featuring Economist Elliot Eisenberg
- Mr Eisenberg thinks the economy is slowing but not dying.
- No bubble looming in housing or student loan debt or anything else.
- GDP growth will slow to 2% in 2020, slightly slower than 2019.
- Just because we are 10+ years in a growth market does NOT mean recession is imminent.
- Mortgage debt remains slightly below the 2008 peak. Total debt is 10% higher.
- Household balance sheets look pretty good.
- Small business confidence remains strong.
- Stock Market is doing relatively well despite numerous stressors.
- Just under 17 million vehicle sales. Not a record but still solid sales.
- US Heavy trucks sales way down, due mostly to record purchases last year (tax incentives).
- Home improvements still on the rise but very slow.
- US Rig count @ 676. Natural gas prices still very low.
- There is a glut of energy and slow global growth will continue that trend.
- Manufacturing #’s are down but is less important to economy than in decades past.
- Non-Manufacturing economy is fine.
- Capital goods orders are flat.
- Service sector is very stable.
- Tax cuts are waning and will have little effect in 2020.
- Global growth is waning, and central banks are easing with sometimes less than zero %.
- Trade War hurts US GDP by a half a percentage point. And will continue to do so.
- The Dollar is surprisingly strong. @ its highest level since 2003.
- GDP Growth is slowing but still growing.
- GDP cannot grow fast with our weak population growth and labor productivity growth.
- Elliot recommends having more sex and therefore more babies.
- Best news is Elliot sees no recession.
- US Economy still the best in the World.
- Labor Markets are very TIGHT.
- Historical job growth since 2000. Year over year close to 2 million new jobs.
- Despite low unemployment, wage growth is weak but at least it is growing.
- Inflation is non-existent. That is good.
- Will rates rise? Elliot says not very likely.
- Fed fund rate currently 1.625%. Elliot predicts in (2021) 1.375% and (2022) back to current 1.625%.
- There is not enough housing! We need more, especially affordable housing.
- Due to Government Regulations and lack of Labor, Housing costs are too HIGH!
- Too many expensive houses. Very few are affordable.
- Housing costs have risen 41% since 2009 and income has only grown by 8%. That is a problem.
- Housing inventories are too low.
- The % of low-down payment buyers (less than 5% down payment) is increasing to over 10% from 2.5%.
- Overall, especially locally in Texas, things are good. The future looks good too.
- All 4 major population centers look to have healthy economic conditions and futures.
- Texas has the fastest population growth of any state in the Union.
- Stay Calm and Keep Building!
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